EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Below 1.1730 After 1.1800 Rejection | Target 1.1650

PAIR: EUR/USD (4H)

Market context (what just happened)
Last push up was clean, strong impulsive move into the 1.1800 zone, then it stalled hard. You can see that rejection wick on the highs… that wasn’t random. After that, sellers stepped in with intent, and we got a shift in short-term structure. Since then, price has been bleeding lower, not aggressively, but with controlled downside, lower highs forming.

Current situation
We’re sitting around 1.1718 area, bouncing slightly after tapping into a minor demand zone. This bounce doesn’t look strong, more like a reaction than real buying.

Key zones (with meaning)

• Resistance: 1.1730 – 1.1800
  • 1.1730 = intraday supply / recent breakdown zone
  • 1.1800 = major rejection area, clear liquidity sweep and sell origin
• Support: 1.1700 – 1.1650
  • 1.1700 = psychological + short-term demand
  • 1.1650 = previous consolidation base, stronger support if we drop deeper

Technical reasoning
Structure shifted after failing to hold above 1.1800, that’s the key. We went from higher highs to a lower high + breakdown. The move down isn’t explosive, which tells me this is more distribution than panic selling.

Also, price already tapped into 1.1700 and bounced weakly, that’s not what strong demand looks like. If buyers were serious, we’d see displacement, not this slow grind.

My bias
Leaning bearish below 1.1730.

As long as price stays under that breakdown zone, I see this as a continuation setup, not a reversal. The upside looks capped unless something changes structurally.

Invalidation
If price breaks and holds above 1.1800, I’m wrong. That would mean the rejection was just a liquidity grab and buyers regained control.

Trade scenarios

Scenario 1 (preferred):
If price pushes into 1.1730–1.1750 and shows rejection → I’d look for shorts targeting 1.1680 → 1.1650
(essentially selling the pullback into supply)

Scenario 2:
If price breaks below 1.1700 cleanly (strong candle, no wick) → I’d look for continuation shorts toward 1.1650
(no need to chase, wait for a small retrace)

Why today matters
We’re approaching the end of the week flow + multiple USD events coming up (visible on chart). That usually brings volatility expansion. This current slow movement feels like positioning before a bigger move.

Conclusion
I’m not buying this bounce. It looks weak and corrective.
As long as we stay below 1.1730, I’m treating this as a sell market targeting lower liquidity around 1.1650.

If buyers want control, they need to prove it, right now, they haven’t.