XAUUSD Intraday Analysis: Pullback or Reversal Before Friday Close?
PAIR: XAUUSD (Gold)
RECENT CONTEXT:
Yesterday was messy. Price sold off aggressively from the 4700+ region and kept printing lower highs through the session. The real move came mid-session where we saw that sharp impulsive drop — no real pullbacks, just straight displacement down. That tells me sellers were in control, not just profit-taking. Later, price based out around the 4520–4540 area and started grinding back up into NY close.
CURRENT PRICE AREA:
Trading around 4635–4640. This is a recovery zone, not strength yet. Feels more like a pullback after a sell-off rather than a clean reversal.
KEY ZONES:
Resistance:
- 4650–4665 → intraday supply / last breakdown area
- 4700 → major rejection level from previous session
Support:
- 4600 → short-term structure support
- 4550–4520 → strong demand zone (where buyers stepped in hard)
TECHNICAL REASONING:
Structure on 15m is still bearish overall lower highs are intact if you zoom out slightly. This push up looks corrective. The move from 4520 was strong, but it hasn’t broken any major bearish structure yet.
Also important — that drop earlier wasn’t random. It likely swept liquidity above highs and then distributed. Now we’re seeing a typical retracement into imbalance/supply.
MY BIAS:
Slightly bearish, but not blindly selling.
I’m leaning short while below 4665. This feels like a retracement into sell zones, not a trend shift. If buyers were truly strong, we would’ve seen a cleaner break and hold above 4650 already.
INVALIDATION:
If price breaks and holds above 4670–4680, I’m wrong. That would mean buyers are taking control and this becomes a reversal, not a pullback.
TRADE SCENARIOS:
1. If price pushes into 4650–4665 and shows rejection → sell
→ Target back to 4600, potentially 4570
This is the cleaner setup selling the pullback into supply.
2. If price drops below 4600 with momentum → continuation sell
→ Target 4550 zone
That confirms sellers are still in control, no need to overthink.
(Alternative)
If price breaks 4670 cleanly and holds → shift bias → buy dips toward 4650
→ Target 4700+
TODAY’S DRIVER:
No major news = technical movement. Likely liquidity-driven moves, especially during London/NY overlap. Could see fakeouts before real direction.
WHY TODAY MATTERS:
Today will decide if that 4520 low was a temporary bottom or just a pause in a larger bearish leg. If sellers step back in from this zone, we could see continuation into Friday.
CONCLUSION:
I’m treating this move up as a pullback, not a reversal unless price proves otherwise above 4670.
Best approach: don’t chase buys here. Either sell higher or wait for confirmation on breakdown.