Forex Market Outlook: GBPUSD Bullish, EURUSD Range, USDJPY Breakdown After Intervention
GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY analysis today shows a market trying to find its footing after a volatile end to April. Here is my look at the charts, key liquidity zones, and trade scenarios for the first week of May across these three major pairs.
PAIR 1: GBPUSD
RECENT CONTEXT Looking at image 01, April was a recovery story for the Pound. We saw a steady climb from the 1.3200 lows early in the month. The real move happened right at the end of April, where price smashed through the 1.3500 level.
CURRENT PRICE AREA We are currently sitting at 1.3575. After that massive push toward 1.3650, we’ve seen a slight pullback as the new month kicks off.
KEY ZONES
- Resistance: 1.3600 – 1.3650 → This is the ceiling from the recent peak.
- Support: 1.3500 → The psychological level that acted as major resistance all April; now it needs to hold as support.
MY BIAS Bullish above 1.3550. The trend is clearly up on the 4H, and I’m looking for a higher low to form before the next leg higher.
PAIR 2: EURUSD
RECENT CONTEXT As shown in image 02, April saw EURUSD struggling to stay above 1.1700. We had a deep dive toward 1.1450 early on, followed by a aggressive “V” recovery that peaked near 1.1850 in mid-April before drifting back down.
CURRENT PRICE AREA We are hovering right at 1.1721. The price action looks a bit choppy here, sitting right in the middle of the recent range.
KEY ZONES
- Resistance: 1.1800 → The previous swing high that rejected hard.
- Support: 1.1650 → A clean liquidity area where buyers stepped in previously.
MY BIAS Neutral. I want to see a clear rejection of 1.1700 or a break above 1.1750 before picking a side.
PAIR 3: USDJPY
RECENT CONTEXT The chart in image 03 tells the biggest story. We spent April climbing steadily toward 160.00, only to see an absolute “God Candle” to the downside right at the start of May. That massive red drop is a clear sign of intervention or a total liquidity wipeout.
CURRENT PRICE AREA Price is trying to stabilize around 157.08 after that violent 300+ pip drop.
KEY ZONES
- Resistance: 158.00 → The “retest” zone of the breakdown.
- Support: 155.50 → The bottom of the recent wick where the bleeding finally stopped.
MY BIAS Bearish. That kind of selling pressure doesn’t just disappear. I expect any bounce back to 158.00 to get sold off quickly.
WHAT I’M SEEING (REAL THINKING) April was about the Dollar trying to dominate, but the first week of May is showing us that the other currencies (and the central banks) are fighting back. The USDJPY chart is a warning—don’t get caught long at the top.
TRADE SCENARIOS
- Scenario 1 (GBPUSD): Look for a long entry if we tap 1.3550 and show a bullish rejection. I’m eyeing a move back toward the 1.3650 highs if the structure stays intact.
- Scenario 2 (EURUSD): If price dips into the 1.1650 – 1.1670 demand zone and we see a liquidity sweep followed by a shift in market structure on the lower timeframes, I’ll look for longs targeting 1.1800. Conversely, if we fail to hold 1.1700, I’ll wait for a deeper retracement.
- Scenario 3 (USDJPY): If price rallies back to 158.00 and stalls with a clear bearish reversal pattern, I’m looking for a short to target 155.50. The intervention wick has created a massive imbalance that the market may want to fill.
WHY TODAY MATTERS It’s the “post-intervention” fallout. Everyone is watching to see if the Dollar can regain its footing or if we are entering a new bearish phase for the greenback.
FINAL THOUGHT Stay patient. After the moves we saw at the end of April, the market needs time to breathe. Avoid overtrading the middle of these ranges.