XAUUSD Weekly Analysis (May) – Weak Structure, Sell Rallies Below 4660?

XAUUSD analysis today reviews last week’s bearish pressure and what to expect this week as gold struggles to hold higher levels. Here’s my view on structure, key zones, and likely scenarios.

PAIR: XAUUSD

RECENT CONTEXT (LAST WEEK)

Last week was mostly bearish.

Early in the week, gold tried to hold up… but sellers kept stepping in.
You can see the structure lower highs forming again and again.

The cleanest move came mid-week.
Strong drop, almost no pullbacks, straight into the 4520–4540 area.

That wasn’t random. That was aggressive selling.

After that, we did get a bounce… but it didn’t feel strong.
More like a reaction than a real reversal.

CURRENT PRICE AREA

Now sitting around 4610–4620.

Price bounced, but now it’s slowing down again.
Not breaking higher cleanly.

Feels like it’s just pausing after the move.

KEY ZONES

Resistance:

4635–4660 → supply zone, multiple rejections
4680 → higher resistance if breakout happens

Support:

4580 → short-term level
4520–4540 → strong base from last week

WHAT I’M SEEING (REAL THINKING)

Structure still looks weak to me.

Yes, we bounced… but where’s the follow-through?
Candles are smaller, wicks on both sides not strong bullish intent.

Also, last week’s drop hasn’t been fully corrected.
That usually means sellers are still in control.

MY BIAS (THIS WEEK)

I’m bearish below 4660.

As long as price stays under that zone, I prefer selling rallies rather than buying dips.

INVALIDATION

If price breaks above 4680 and holds,
then this idea is wrong and we could see continuation higher.

TRADE SCENARIOS

Scenario 1 (Preferred – Bearish Continuation):

If price pushes into 4635–4660 and shows rejection,
I’ll look for shorts targeting 4580 first… then possibly 4540.

Scenario 2 (Alternative – Bullish Reversal):

If price breaks above 4660 cleanly and holds,
then we could see a move toward 4680–4700.

But it needs strong candles not slow grinding.

WHY THIS WEEK MATTERS

Last week gave the bearish move.
This week decides if that move continues… or gets reversed.

Also, new month = fresh liquidity.
Expect volatility around session opens.

FINAL THOUGHT

Right now, this doesn’t look like a strong bullish market.

More like a bounce inside a weak structure.

I’m not buying into resistance.
Either it breaks clean… or I stay with shorts.

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